Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Malkin wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 46.1% vs McLeod 47.8% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 80.2%
Defensive zone
McLeod 73.5%
Neutral zone
Malkin 57.2%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 60.1%
39.9%
60.1%
Malkin
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Malkin
McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
1
Malkin
McLeod
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
2
Malkin
McLeod
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
45.7% (219)
49.2% (796)
-3.5%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
44.8% (87)
-10.2%
On power play, McLeod has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Malkin is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (177).
Malkin shoots left. McLeod is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (748).
Home / Away
Malkin
McLeod
Home
50.4% (113)
49.2% (575)
Away
39.4% (132)
45.9% (571)
By Period
Malkin
McLeod
P1
47.7%
52.8%
P2
44.9%
45.1%
P3
40.0%
45.6%
OT
100.0%
35.7%
Final 5 min
35.3%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
44.5%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 10:24 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 03:22 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 08:12 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 08:06 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |