Scouting Report
Tim Connolly holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Connolly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Malkin wins 44.8% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 47.7% vs Connolly 48.9% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 79.5%
Defensive zone
Connolly 59.2%
Neutral zone
Malkin 60.2%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 56.9%
56.9%
43.1%
Malkin
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Malkin
Connolly
Last 6: Malkin 1-5 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
2
Malkin
Connolly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
3
Malkin
Connolly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Malkin
1
0
Malkin
Connolly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (922)
47.8% (605)
-1.4%
Power Play
52.7% (262)
51.2% (86)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
55.1% (89)
-32.9%
On penalty kill, Connolly has a +32.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Malkin is 44.8% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Malkin shoots left. Connolly is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (548).
Home / Away
Malkin
Connolly
Home
52.4% (601)
51.1% (358)
Away
42.7% (609)
46.7% (428)
By Period
Malkin
Connolly
P1
48.8%
48.7%
P2
50.6%
48.1%
P3
41.6%
50.4%
OT
65.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
46.4%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
47.5%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2012 | 3 | 12:39 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 7, 2012 | 2 | 15:10 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 7, 2012 | 1 | 06:57 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 29, 2011 | 3 | 18:18 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Oct 29, 2011 | 3 | 07:50 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |