Scouting Report
Tim Connolly holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Connolly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Malkin wins 43.0% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 45.9% vs Connolly 47.3% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 75.6%
Defensive zone
Connolly 55.6%
Neutral zone
Malkin 61.1%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 57.6%
57.6%
42.4%
Malkin
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Malkin
Connolly
Last 6: Malkin 1-5 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
2
Malkin
Connolly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
3
Malkin
Connolly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Malkin
1
0
Malkin
Connolly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (10,081)
47.4% (1,307)
-1.8%
Power Play
50.1% (668)
50.2% (251)
-0.1%
Penalty Kill
32.2% (59)
41.9% (186)
-9.7%
On penalty kill, Connolly has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Malkin is 43.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,557).
Malkin shoots left. Connolly is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,179).
Home / Away
Malkin
Connolly
Home
47.6% (5,395)
48.5% (870)
Away
44.0% (5,436)
45.9% (885)
By Period
Malkin
Connolly
P1
45.9%
47.4%
P2
46.2%
47.7%
P3
45.2%
47.0%
OT
49.0%
37.8%
Final 5 min
46.0%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2012 | 3 | 12:39 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 7, 2012 | 2 | 15:10 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 7, 2012 | 1 | 06:57 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 29, 2011 | 3 | 18:18 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Oct 29, 2011 | 3 | 07:50 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |