Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +12.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Kuznetsov shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Kuznetsov 44.0% (+12.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 56.4%
Defensive zone
Stepan 96.1%
Neutral zone
Stepan 81.3%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 80.5%
80.5%
19.5%
Stepan
Kuznetsov
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Stepan
Kuznetsov
Last 7: Stepan 6-1 Kuznetsov
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
0
Stepan
Kuznetsov
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
1
Stepan
Kuznetsov
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
0
Stepan
Kuznetsov
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Kuznetsov
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
43.3% (980)
+11.2%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
47.0% (115)
-47.0%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
40.8% (71)
+23.9%
On power play, Kuznetsov has a +47.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuznetsov shoots left. Stepan is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Stepan shoots right. Kuznetsov is 42.3% vs right-shot opponents (376).
Home / Away
Stepan
Kuznetsov
Home
54.5% (222)
43.9% (602)
Away
57.2% (222)
43.1% (564)
By Period
Stepan
Kuznetsov
P1
57.5%
43.2%
P2
54.7%
41.5%
P3
55.9%
45.2%
Final 5 min
57.5%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Kuznetsov
46.0%▲
44.0%
43.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2022 | 3 | 19:58 | Defensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Mar 28, 2022 | 2 | 14:52 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 2 | 05:50 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 3 | 09:13 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 3 | 09:07 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 2 | 06:06 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 2 | 05:45 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |