Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kuznetsov wins 42.3% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuznetsov 44.0% vs Spezza 52.4% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kuznetsov 78.6%
Defensive zone
Kuznetsov 82.7%
Neutral zone
Kuznetsov 74.7%
Result
Evgeny Kuznetsov favored at 77.9%
77.9%
22.1%
Kuznetsov
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Kuznetsov
Spezza
Last 5: Kuznetsov 0-5 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
2
Kuznetsov
Spezza
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
3
Kuznetsov
Spezza
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuznetsov
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (980)
53.7% (451)
-10.4%
Power Play
47.0% (115)
54.3% (92)
-7.3%
Penalty Kill
40.8% (71)
38.2% (34)
+2.6%
On even strength, Spezza has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Kuznetsov is 42.3% vs right-shot opponents (376).
Kuznetsov shoots left. Spezza is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (409).
Home / Away
Kuznetsov
Spezza
Home
43.9% (602)
55.0% (282)
Away
43.1% (564)
50.8% (295)
By Period
Kuznetsov
Spezza
P1
43.2%
53.1%
P2
41.5%
53.2%
P3
45.2%
52.3%
Final 5 min
49.6%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuznetsov
46.0%▲
44.0%
43.5%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 04:40 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 1 | 05:34 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 1 | 03:12 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 1 | 03:06 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 28, 2022 | 1 | 16:23 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |