Scouting Report
Fedor Svechkov holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Svechkov on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Svechkov wins 41.9% vs right-shot opponents — Marner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Svechkov 44.2% vs Marner 43.1% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 52.6%
Defensive zone
Svechkov 58.2%
Neutral zone
Svechkov 57.9%
Result
Fedor Svechkov favored at 56.0%
56.0%
44.0%
Svechkov
Marner
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Svechkov
Marner
Last 5: Svechkov 4-1 Marner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Svechkov
1
0
Svechkov
Marner
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Svechkov
3
1
Svechkov
Marner
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Svechkov
Marner
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (430)
41.5% (282)
+1.5%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
40.0% (5)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
25.0% (12)
+15.0%
On penalty kill, Svechkov has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marner shoots right. Svechkov is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (148).
Svechkov shoots left. Marner is 40.9% vs left-shot opponents (220).
Home / Away
Svechkov
Marner
Home
41.0% (212)
36.1% (158)
Away
44.7% (226)
46.1% (141)
By Period
Svechkov
Marner
P1
36.1%
41.6%
P2
45.4%
40.2%
P3
46.7%
40.5%
Final 5 min
42.4%
41.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Svechkov
34.0%▼
41.5%
42.9%
Marner
48.0%▲
40.0%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 10:15 | Defensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 10:01 | Defensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 01:14 | Offensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 06:13 | Defensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 08:39 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |