Scouting Report
Mitch Marner holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Svechkov on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Svechkov wins 38.7% vs right-shot opponents — Marner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Svechkov 41.4% vs Marner 43.1% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 61.9%
Defensive zone
Marner 66.4%
Neutral zone
Marner 57.0%
Result
Mitch Marner favored at 65.5%
34.5%
65.5%
Svechkov
Marner
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Svechkov
Marner
Last 5: Svechkov 4-1 Marner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Svechkov
1
0
Svechkov
Marner
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Svechkov
3
1
Svechkov
Marner
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Svechkov
Marner
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (748)
42.2% (462)
-1.8%
Power Play
41.2% (17)
55.6% (18)
-14.4%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (8)
35.4% (65)
-10.4%
On power play, Marner has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marner shoots right. Svechkov is 38.7% vs right-shot opponents (261).
Svechkov shoots left. Marner is 40.1% vs left-shot opponents (372).
Home / Away
Svechkov
Marner
Home
39.2% (393)
38.2% (293)
Away
41.3% (380)
46.0% (252)
By Period
Svechkov
Marner
P1
35.6%
39.1%
P2
45.0%
41.1%
P3
40.2%
47.1%
OT
100.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
39.3%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Svechkov
34.0%▼
41.5%
40.2%
Marner
48.0%▲
40.0%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 10:15 | Defensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 10:01 | Defensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 01:14 | Offensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 06:13 | Defensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 08:39 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |