Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Svechkov wins 38.7% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Svechkov 41.4% vs Dowd 50.7% (-10.5%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Svechkov 85.3%
Defensive zone
Svechkov 55.8%
Neutral zone
Svechkov 67.0%
Result
Fedor Svechkov favored at 67.9%
67.9%
32.1%
Svechkov
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Svechkov
Dowd
Last 10: Svechkov 4-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Svechkov
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
3
Svechkov
Dowd
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Svechkov
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Svechkov
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (748)
52.4% (6,009)
-12.0%
Power Play
41.2% (17)
56.1% (164)
-14.9%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (8)
44.1% (1,635)
-19.1%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +19.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Svechkov is 38.7% vs right-shot opponents (261).
Svechkov shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Home / Away
Svechkov
Dowd
Home
39.2% (393)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
41.3% (380)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Svechkov
Dowd
P1
35.6%
51.7%
P2
45.0%
50.4%
P3
40.2%
50.3%
OT
100.0%
45.9%
Final 5 min
39.3%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Svechkov
34.0%▼
41.5%
40.2%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 11:43 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 17:21 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 16:57 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 13:10 | Neutral | Fedor Svechkov |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 07:13 | Neutral | Fedor Svechkov |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 09:58 | Defensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 10:34 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 09:17 | Offensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 02:56 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |