Scouting Report
Morgan Barron holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nazar on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Nazar wins 44.1% vs left-shot opponents — Barron shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 45.7% vs Barron 48.2% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Nazar leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Nazar 51.0%
Defensive zone
Barron 86.0%
Neutral zone
Barron 60.1%
Result
Morgan Barron favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Nazar
Barron
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Nazar
Barron
Last 10: Nazar 7-3 Barron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
6
1
Nazar
Barron
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barron
0
1
Nazar
Barron
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nazar
2
1
Nazar
Barron
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Barron
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (866)
49.5% (731)
-3.4%
Power Play
46.5% (172)
50.0% (6)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (69)
42.6% (209)
-9.3%
On penalty kill, Barron has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barron shoots left. Nazar is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (807).
Nazar shoots right. Barron is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (311).
Home / Away
Nazar
Barron
Home
44.2% (536)
45.5% (457)
Away
46.4% (571)
50.3% (489)
By Period
Nazar
Barron
P1
47.3%
47.6%
P2
42.0%
51.3%
P3
46.0%
45.0%
OT
66.7%
25.0%
Final 5 min
44.7%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
45.3%
Barron
48.0%▲
41.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 14:58 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 03:08 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Barron |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 17:54 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 09:58 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 13:02 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 13:02 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 12:54 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 11:53 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 11:57 | Offensive | Morgan Barron |