Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nazar wins 43.8% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 46.6% vs Monahan 52.8% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nazar 76.0%
Defensive zone
Nazar 79.4%
Neutral zone
Nazar 79.7%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 78.4%
78.4%
21.6%
Nazar
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Nazar
Monahan
Last 9: Nazar 2-7 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
2
1
Nazar
Monahan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
3
Nazar
Monahan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
3
Nazar
Monahan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (533)
53.2% (823)
-6.3%
Power Play
49.2% (132)
55.3% (159)
-6.1%
Penalty Kill
25.6% (39)
48.4% (95)
-22.8%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +22.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Nazar is 43.8% vs left-shot opponents (504).
Nazar shoots right. Monahan is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (401).
Home / Away
Nazar
Monahan
Home
45.0% (329)
54.6% (529)
Away
47.2% (375)
51.6% (548)
By Period
Nazar
Monahan
P1
47.2%
49.0%
P2
43.1%
55.4%
P3
46.8%
53.6%
OT
75.0%
61.9%
Final 5 min
42.9%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
46.2%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 14:53 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 15:09 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 01:24 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 3 | 05:08 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 2 | 14:47 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 2 | 10:37 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 2 | 01:23 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 1 | 19:13 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 1 | 08:13 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |