Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nazar wins 44.1% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 45.7% vs Monahan 51.3% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nazar 81.6%
Defensive zone
Nazar 83.3%
Neutral zone
Nazar 80.7%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 81.9%
81.9%
18.1%
Nazar
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Nazar
Monahan
Last 9: Nazar 2-7 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
2
1
Nazar
Monahan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
3
Nazar
Monahan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
3
Nazar
Monahan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (866)
51.1% (11,356)
-5.0%
Power Play
46.5% (172)
53.7% (2,580)
-7.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (69)
46.0% (766)
-12.7%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Nazar is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (807).
Nazar shoots right. Monahan is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (5,401).
Home / Away
Nazar
Monahan
Home
44.2% (536)
52.4% (7,358)
Away
46.4% (571)
50.2% (7,344)
By Period
Nazar
Monahan
P1
47.3%
50.9%
P2
42.0%
51.7%
P3
46.0%
51.0%
OT
66.7%
53.5%
Final 5 min
44.7%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
45.3%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 14:53 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 15:09 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 01:24 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 3 | 05:08 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 2 | 14:47 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 2 | 10:37 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 2 | 01:23 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 1 | 19:13 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 1 | 08:13 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |