Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 11 meetings). Nielsen wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nielsen 48.5% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 26-14 in 40 meetings
Offensive zone
Nielsen 88.2%
Defensive zone
Nielsen 87.6%
Neutral zone
Nielsen 85.6%
Result
Frans Nielsen favored at 86.9%
86.9%
13.1%
Nielsen
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
26
(40 meetings)
14
26
Nielsen
Pavelski
Last 10: Nielsen 3-7 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
8
Nielsen
Pavelski
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
5
7
Nielsen
Pavelski
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
6
11
Nielsen
Pavelski
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nielsen
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (7,608)
53.6% (8,791)
-4.3%
Power Play
54.7% (594)
58.2% (2,122)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (1,420)
50.9% (1,138)
-9.2%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Nielsen is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,660).
Nielsen shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Nielsen
Pavelski
Home
49.9% (4,766)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
47.1% (4,890)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Nielsen
Pavelski
P1
49.7%
53.5%
P2
47.6%
55.2%
P3
48.2%
53.9%
OT
46.6%
52.3%
Final 5 min
48.7%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nielsen
50.0%▬
50.0%
48.5%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2020 | 1 | 03:47 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Feb 24, 2019 | 3 | 06:21 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 31, 2018 | 3 | 02:11 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 31, 2018 | 2 | 00:50 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 31, 2018 | 1 | 03:49 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 7, 2017 | 2 | 01:41 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Jan 7, 2017 | 1 | 14:41 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Jan 7, 2017 | 1 | 10:42 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 22, 2016 | 3 | 18:51 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 10, 2015 | 3 | 08:33 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 10, 2015 | 2 | 02:32 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 10, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 10, 2015 | 1 | 19:15 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Nov 10, 2015 | 1 | 18:59 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 10, 2015 | 1 | 14:54 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 3 | 16:37 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 3 | 03:42 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 2 | 17:28 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 2 | 17:15 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 1 | 15:17 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |