Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Nielsen wins 45.6% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nielsen 45.6% vs Thornton 55.5% (-10.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nielsen 74.8%
Defensive zone
Nielsen 86.4%
Neutral zone
Nielsen 75.0%
Result
Frans Nielsen favored at 79.5%
79.5%
20.5%
Nielsen
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Nielsen
Thornton
Last 5: Nielsen 0-5 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
2
Nielsen
Thornton
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
2
Nielsen
Thornton
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
1
Nielsen
Thornton
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nielsen
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (906)
55.8% (704)
-10.2%
Power Play
62.2% (45)
56.7% (208)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
39.6% (192)
56.7% (67)
-17.1%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +17.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Nielsen is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (783).
Nielsen shoots left. Thornton is 57.5% vs left-shot opponents (605).
Home / Away
Nielsen
Thornton
Home
45.6% (581)
59.0% (493)
Away
44.9% (575)
53.2% (500)
By Period
Nielsen
Thornton
P1
47.0%
55.3%
P2
44.0%
55.4%
P3
44.9%
57.1%
OT
42.9%
59.3%
Final 5 min
48.6%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nielsen
50.0%▬
50.0%
45.2%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
56.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2011 | 3 | 12:25 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 29, 2011 | 3 | 06:40 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 29, 2011 | 3 | 02:57 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 29, 2011 | 2 | 13:19 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 29, 2011 | 2 | 04:03 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |