Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on neutral-zone draws (84% H2H, 19 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nielsen 48.5% vs Thornton 54.3% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 27-13 in 40 meetings
Offensive zone
Nielsen 85.9%
Defensive zone
Nielsen 88.3%
Neutral zone
Nielsen 85.5%
Result
Frans Nielsen favored at 86.3%
86.3%
13.7%
Nielsen
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
27
(40 meetings)
13
27
Nielsen
Thornton
Last 10: Nielsen 2-8 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nielsen
6
5
Nielsen
Thornton
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
4
6
Nielsen
Thornton
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
3
16
Nielsen
Thornton
19 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nielsen
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (7,608)
53.5% (6,640)
-4.2%
Power Play
54.7% (594)
57.2% (1,387)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (1,420)
56.7% (427)
-15.0%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Nielsen is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,996).
Nielsen shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Home / Away
Nielsen
Thornton
Home
49.9% (4,766)
55.8% (4,271)
Away
47.1% (4,890)
52.8% (4,219)
By Period
Nielsen
Thornton
P1
49.7%
55.0%
P2
47.6%
53.3%
P3
48.2%
54.4%
OT
46.6%
56.4%
Final 5 min
48.7%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nielsen
50.0%▬
50.0%
48.5%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2019 | 1 | 08:01 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Mar 25, 2019 | 3 | 08:35 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 24, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 24, 2019 | 1 | 19:23 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 24, 2019 | 1 | 17:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 24, 2019 | 1 | 12:33 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 24, 2019 | 1 | 10:08 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 7, 2017 | 1 | 17:29 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Jan 7, 2017 | 1 | 08:59 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 22, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 10, 2015 | 1 | 17:37 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 2 | 19:02 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 2 | 13:47 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 2 | 04:37 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 2 | 02:28 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 1 | 10:28 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 1 | 05:44 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Nov 1, 2014 | 3 | 14:51 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 1, 2014 | 3 | 11:50 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 1, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |