Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nielsen 48.3% vs Thornton 57.3% (-9.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nielsen 80.4%
Defensive zone
Nielsen 73.4%
Neutral zone
Nielsen 78.4%
Result
Frans Nielsen favored at 76.4%
76.4%
23.6%
Nielsen
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Nielsen
Thornton
Last 9: Nielsen 2-7 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nielsen
1
0
Nielsen
Thornton
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
3
Nielsen
Thornton
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
4
Nielsen
Thornton
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nielsen
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (841)
58.7% (722)
-9.2%
Power Play
54.1% (37)
58.5% (147)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
40.7% (172)
51.2% (86)
-10.5%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Nielsen is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Nielsen shoots left. Thornton is 59.3% vs left-shot opponents (528).
Home / Away
Nielsen
Thornton
Home
51.2% (510)
60.1% (496)
Away
45.4% (540)
55.8% (459)
By Period
Nielsen
Thornton
P1
48.6%
60.4%
P2
47.4%
54.7%
P3
48.9%
58.2%
OT
40.0%
61.5%
Final 5 min
51.5%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nielsen
50.0%▬
50.0%
48.2%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
58.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2014 | 3 | 14:51 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 1, 2014 | 3 | 11:50 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 1, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 1, 2014 | 2 | 10:11 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Nov 1, 2014 | 1 | 11:37 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 1, 2014 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 16, 2014 | OT | 04:47 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 3 | 18:30 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 1 | 19:29 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |