Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nielsen on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nielsen wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nielsen 50.1% vs Thornton 52.6% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 80.8%
Defensive zone
Nielsen 55.5%
Neutral zone
Thornton 65.1%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 66.0%
34.0%
66.0%
Nielsen
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Nielsen
Thornton
Last 7: Nielsen 6-1 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nielsen
2
1
Nielsen
Thornton
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nielsen
2
0
Nielsen
Thornton
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nielsen
2
0
Nielsen
Thornton
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nielsen
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (899)
51.8% (577)
-1.1%
Power Play
54.8% (73)
57.7% (168)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
45.7% (197)
37.5% (8)
+8.2%
On penalty kill, Nielsen has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Nielsen is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (742).
Nielsen shoots left. Thornton is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (449).
Home / Away
Nielsen
Thornton
Home
51.1% (595)
53.0% (379)
Away
49.1% (574)
52.9% (374)
By Period
Nielsen
Thornton
P1
53.2%
53.3%
P2
48.1%
50.7%
P3
49.3%
54.3%
OT
42.9%
62.5%
Final 5 min
49.2%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nielsen
50.0%▬
50.0%
50.1%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2015 | 1 | 17:37 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 2 | 19:02 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 2 | 13:47 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 2 | 04:37 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 2 | 02:28 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 1 | 10:28 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 1 | 05:44 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |