Scouting Report
Frans Nielsen holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Nielsen on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Nielsen wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nielsen 46.6% vs Sturm 48.7% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 72.8%
Defensive zone
Nielsen 66.6%
Neutral zone
Sturm 58.5%
Result
Marco Sturm favored at 53.5%
46.5%
53.5%
Nielsen
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Nielsen
Sturm
Last 5: Nielsen 4-1 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nielsen
1
0
Nielsen
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nielsen
3
1
Nielsen
Sturm
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nielsen
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (766)
35.7% (14)
+10.5%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (125)
100.0% (1)
-52.0%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +52.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Nielsen is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Nielsen shoots left. Sturm is 33.3% vs left-shot opponents (12).
Home / Away
Nielsen
Sturm
Home
46.8% (489)
33.3% (12)
Away
45.6% (476)
66.7% (3)
By Period
Nielsen
Sturm
P1
45.5%
33.3%
P2
47.5%
40.0%
P3
46.5%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nielsen
50.0%▬
50.0%
46.2%
Sturm
53.6%▬
53.6%
40.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 2 | 05:26 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 1 | 12:16 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 1 | 08:52 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Marco Sturm |