Scouting Report
Marco Sturm holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nielsen on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nielsen 48.5% vs Sturm 50.8% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 72.3%
Defensive zone
Nielsen 62.1%
Neutral zone
Sturm 59.1%
Result
Marco Sturm favored at 54.9%
45.1%
54.9%
Nielsen
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Nielsen
Sturm
Last 5: Nielsen 4-1 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nielsen
1
0
Nielsen
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nielsen
3
1
Nielsen
Sturm
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nielsen
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (7,608)
53.8% (26)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (1,420)
50.0% (2)
-8.3%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Nielsen is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,996).
Nielsen shoots left. Sturm is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (20).
Home / Away
Nielsen
Sturm
Home
49.9% (4,766)
55.0% (20)
Away
47.1% (4,890)
50.0% (8)
By Period
Nielsen
Sturm
P1
49.7%
50.0%
P2
47.6%
36.4%
P3
48.2%
77.8%
Final 5 min
48.7%
75.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nielsen
50.0%▬
50.0%
48.5%
Sturm
53.6%▬
53.6%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 2 | 05:26 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 1 | 12:16 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 1 | 08:52 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Marco Sturm |