Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Nielsen wins 45.6% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nielsen 45.6% vs Duchene 50.9% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 81.8%
Defensive zone
Nielsen 67.4%
Neutral zone
Duchene 57.8%
Result
Frans Nielsen favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Nielsen
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Nielsen
Duchene
Last 7: Nielsen 4-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nielsen
1
0
Nielsen
Duchene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
3
Nielsen
Duchene
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nielsen
1
0
Nielsen
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nielsen
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (906)
51.0% (357)
-5.4%
Power Play
62.2% (45)
53.6% (28)
+8.6%
Penalty Kill
39.6% (192)
50.0% (2)
-10.4%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Nielsen is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (783).
Nielsen shoots left. Duchene is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (271).
Home / Away
Nielsen
Duchene
Home
45.6% (581)
51.0% (208)
Away
44.9% (575)
51.4% (183)
By Period
Nielsen
Duchene
P1
47.0%
53.3%
P2
44.0%
53.4%
P3
44.9%
44.6%
OT
42.9%
66.7%
Final 5 min
48.6%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nielsen
50.0%▬
50.0%
45.2%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2011 | 3 | 02:03 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 3 | 01:51 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 2 | 14:50 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 2 | 14:33 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 1 | 18:35 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 1 | 18:27 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 1 | 03:30 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |