Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (68% H2H, 28 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nielsen 48.5% vs Duchene 54.1% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 34-32 in 66 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 53.8%
Defensive zone
Nielsen 68.7%
Neutral zone
Nielsen 55.1%
Result
Frans Nielsen favored at 55.7%
55.7%
44.3%
Nielsen
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
32
-
34
(66 meetings)
32
34
Nielsen
Duchene
Last 10: Nielsen 7-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
9
19
Nielsen
Duchene
28 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nielsen
11
10
Nielsen
Duchene
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nielsen
12
5
Nielsen
Duchene
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nielsen
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (7,608)
53.9% (10,396)
-4.6%
Power Play
54.7% (594)
56.9% (1,665)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (1,420)
49.1% (468)
-7.4%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Nielsen is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,996).
Nielsen shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Home / Away
Nielsen
Duchene
Home
49.9% (4,766)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
47.1% (4,890)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Nielsen
Duchene
P1
49.7%
54.5%
P2
47.6%
54.5%
P3
48.2%
53.4%
OT
46.6%
56.3%
Final 5 min
48.7%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nielsen
50.0%▬
50.0%
48.5%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2021 | 2 | 19:05 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Nov 4, 2019 | 2 | 04:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 5, 2019 | 3 | 18:58 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 3 | 18:13 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 3 | 16:43 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 3 | 14:35 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 3 | 08:49 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 1 | 19:51 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 1 | 11:26 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 1 | 02:47 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 15, 2018 | 3 | 02:24 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 15, 2018 | 2 | 07:02 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 15, 2018 | 1 | 19:21 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Nov 15, 2018 | 1 | 16:37 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 31, 2018 | 1 | 15:21 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Jan 3, 2018 | 3 | 10:55 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Jan 3, 2018 | 1 | 16:58 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 1 | 00:46 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 15, 2017 | 1 | 19:36 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 15, 2017 | 1 | 07:19 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |