Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Nielsen wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nielsen 50.1% vs Duchene 57.0% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nielsen 59.2%
Defensive zone
Nielsen 84.1%
Neutral zone
Nielsen 65.1%
Result
Frans Nielsen favored at 63.4%
63.4%
36.6%
Nielsen
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Nielsen
Duchene
Last 6: Nielsen 1-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
5
Nielsen
Duchene
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nielsen
1
0
Nielsen
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nielsen
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (899)
56.5% (527)
-5.8%
Power Play
54.8% (73)
61.6% (185)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
45.7% (197)
59.3% (27)
-13.6%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Nielsen is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (742).
Nielsen shoots left. Duchene is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (396).
Home / Away
Nielsen
Duchene
Home
51.1% (595)
57.6% (403)
Away
49.1% (574)
58.3% (336)
By Period
Nielsen
Duchene
P1
53.2%
61.4%
P2
48.1%
58.5%
P3
49.3%
54.9%
OT
42.9%
40.0%
Final 5 min
49.2%
62.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nielsen
50.0%▬
50.0%
50.1%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
57.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2015 | 2 | 12:55 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 1 | 05:36 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 30, 2015 | 3 | 07:50 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 30, 2015 | 2 | 09:28 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 30, 2015 | 1 | 10:40 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 30, 2015 | 1 | 05:38 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |