Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +12.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Nielsen wins 45.6% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nielsen 45.6% vs Gaustad 56.7% (-12.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nielsen 70.3%
Defensive zone
Nielsen 76.9%
Neutral zone
Nielsen 73.0%
Result
Frans Nielsen favored at 72.5%
72.5%
27.5%
Nielsen
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Nielsen
Gaustad
Last 6: Nielsen 1-5 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
1
Nielsen
Gaustad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
1
4
Nielsen
Gaustad
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nielsen
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (906)
57.8% (854)
-12.2%
Power Play
62.2% (45)
56.0% (25)
+6.2%
Penalty Kill
39.6% (192)
55.1% (263)
-15.5%
On penalty kill, Gaustad has a +15.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Nielsen is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (783).
Nielsen shoots left. Gaustad is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (734).
Home / Away
Nielsen
Gaustad
Home
45.6% (581)
61.3% (633)
Away
44.9% (575)
52.4% (517)
By Period
Nielsen
Gaustad
P1
47.0%
57.9%
P2
44.0%
55.3%
P3
44.9%
58.3%
OT
42.9%
64.3%
Final 5 min
48.6%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nielsen
50.0%▬
50.0%
45.2%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2012 | 2 | 05:08 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 2 | 14:48 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 2 | 10:55 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 29, 2011 | 3 | 08:43 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 29, 2011 | 3 | 08:38 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 29, 2011 | 2 | 10:43 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |