Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 26 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nielsen 48.5% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 42-24 in 66 meetings
Offensive zone
Nielsen 94.2%
Defensive zone
Nielsen 83.8%
Neutral zone
Nielsen 91.2%
Result
Frans Nielsen favored at 89.2%
89.2%
10.8%
Nielsen
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
42
(66 meetings)
24
42
Nielsen
O'Reilly
Last 10: Nielsen 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nielsen
13
8
Nielsen
O'Reilly
21 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
6
20
Nielsen
O'Reilly
26 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
14
Nielsen
O'Reilly
19 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nielsen
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (7,608)
56.2% (15,260)
-6.9%
Power Play
54.7% (594)
58.8% (3,445)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (1,420)
51.4% (2,811)
-9.7%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Nielsen is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,996).
Nielsen shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Nielsen
O'Reilly
Home
49.9% (4,766)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
47.1% (4,890)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Nielsen
O'Reilly
P1
49.7%
55.6%
P2
47.6%
57.0%
P3
48.2%
55.1%
OT
46.6%
62.2%
Final 5 min
48.7%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nielsen
50.0%▬
50.0%
48.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2019 | 3 | 08:48 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 3 | 04:40 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2018 | 2 | 14:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2018 | 2 | 09:06 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Nov 28, 2018 | 1 | 10:18 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Mar 29, 2018 | 3 | 04:35 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 29, 2018 | 2 | 18:16 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 29, 2018 | 2 | 18:09 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 29, 2018 | 2 | 00:30 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Mar 29, 2018 | 1 | 14:27 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 29, 2018 | 1 | 11:30 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Mar 29, 2018 | 1 | 08:08 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 29, 2018 | 1 | 05:54 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 3 | 18:35 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 2 | 19:15 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 2 | 12:00 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 1 | 08:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 1 | 04:49 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |