Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.5% vs 48.6%). Look for Smith on neutral-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nielsen 48.5% vs Smith 48.7% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Nielsen leads 13-12 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Nielsen 51.6%
Defensive zone
Smith 51.4%
Neutral zone
Nielsen 51.8%
Result
Frans Nielsen favored at 50.7%
50.7%
49.3%
Nielsen
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
12
(25 meetings)
13
12
Nielsen
Smith
Last 10: Nielsen 4-6 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nielsen
7
1
Nielsen
Smith
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nielsen
5
3
Nielsen
Smith
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
1
8
Nielsen
Smith
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nielsen
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (7,608)
49.0% (769)
+0.3%
Power Play
54.7% (594)
63.6% (22)
-8.9%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (1,420)
42.4% (118)
-0.7%
On power play, Smith has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Nielsen is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,996).
Nielsen shoots left. Smith is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Home / Away
Nielsen
Smith
Home
49.9% (4,766)
52.4% (490)
Away
47.1% (4,890)
44.0% (420)
By Period
Nielsen
Smith
P1
49.7%
46.9%
P2
47.6%
51.2%
P3
48.2%
47.7%
OT
46.6%
0.0%
Final 5 min
48.7%
53.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nielsen
50.0%▬
50.0%
48.5%
Smith
46.0%▼
52.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2015 | 3 | 13:46 | Neutral | Trevor Smith |
| Mar 9, 2015 | 3 | 13:37 | Defensive | Trevor Smith |
| Mar 9, 2015 | 3 | 05:23 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Mar 9, 2015 | 3 | 05:11 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Mar 9, 2015 | 3 | 01:57 | Neutral | Trevor Smith |
| Mar 9, 2015 | 1 | 18:23 | Neutral | Trevor Smith |
| Mar 9, 2015 | 1 | 14:40 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 2 | 16:29 | Offensive | Trevor Smith |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 2 | 01:32 | Neutral | Trevor Smith |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 1 | 16:32 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 1 | 08:29 | Neutral | Trevor Smith |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 1 | 08:24 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 1 | 04:52 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 1 | 02:22 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Nov 19, 2013 | 3 | 15:07 | Defensive | Trevor Smith |
| Nov 19, 2013 | 3 | 03:39 | Neutral | Trevor Smith |
| Nov 19, 2013 | 2 | 12:19 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Nov 19, 2013 | 2 | 00:59 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Nov 19, 2013 | 2 | 00:48 | Defensive | Trevor Smith |
| Nov 19, 2013 | 1 | 18:34 | Neutral | Trevor Smith |