Scouting Report
Fraser Minten holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Minten on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Minten 48.0% vs McBain 46.7% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Minten 67.2%
Defensive zone
McBain 51.5%
Neutral zone
Minten 56.5%
Result
Fraser Minten favored at 60.9%
60.9%
39.1%
Minten
McBain
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Minten
McBain
Last 6: Minten 5-1 McBain
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Minten
3
1
Minten
McBain
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Minten
2
0
Minten
McBain
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Minten
McBain
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (793)
48.0% (2,298)
+0.8%
Power Play
45.8% (59)
49.0% (51)
-3.2%
Penalty Kill
34.0% (47)
35.7% (308)
-1.7%
On power play, McBain has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McBain shoots left. Minten is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (594).
Minten shoots left. McBain is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,667).
Home / Away
Minten
McBain
Home
51.2% (449)
49.0% (1,359)
Away
44.4% (450)
44.0% (1,298)
By Period
Minten
McBain
P1
44.0%
46.7%
P2
46.4%
47.5%
P3
52.1%
45.6%
OT
83.3%
37.5%
Final 5 min
44.7%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Minten
46.0%▼
49.5%
47.8%
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 08:13 | Offensive | Fraser Minten |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 11:45 | Offensive | Fraser Minten |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 10:25 | Offensive | Fraser Minten |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 01:51 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 01:44 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 01:40 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |