Scouting Report
Fraser Minten holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Sourdif on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Minten wins 44.9% vs right-shot opponents — Sourdif shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Minten 48.5% vs Sourdif 45.9% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sourdif 53.8%
Defensive zone
Sourdif 71.4%
Neutral zone
Sourdif 54.3%
Result
Justin Sourdif favored at 54.2%
45.8%
54.2%
Minten
Sourdif
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Minten
Sourdif
Last 6: Minten 2-4 Sourdif
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
0
1
Minten
Sourdif
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sourdif
2
3
Minten
Sourdif
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Minten
Sourdif
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (603)
44.6% (556)
+5.0%
Power Play
45.8% (48)
50.0% (24)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
32.6% (43)
61.5% (13)
-28.9%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +28.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sourdif shoots right. Minten is 44.9% vs right-shot opponents (247).
Minten shoots left. Sourdif is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (418).
Home / Away
Minten
Sourdif
Home
51.6% (322)
43.6% (321)
Away
45.4% (372)
47.1% (272)
By Period
Minten
Sourdif
P1
44.9%
43.1%
P2
46.6%
43.9%
P3
52.1%
48.6%
OT
83.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
46.7%
44.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Minten
46.0%▼
49.5%
48.3%
Sourdif
32.0%▼
40.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 12:12 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 04:28 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 00:06 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 18:33 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |