Scouting Report
Johan Larsson holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Larsson on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Vilardi wins 44.8% vs left-shot opponents — Larsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Vilardi 46.5% vs Larsson 48.8% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Larsson leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Vilardi 73.7%
Defensive zone
Larsson 57.0%
Neutral zone
Vilardi 57.8%
Result
Gabriel Vilardi favored at 51.7%
51.7%
48.3%
Vilardi
Larsson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Vilardi
Larsson
Last 10: Vilardi 3-7 Larsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Vilardi
1
0
Vilardi
Larsson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
1
5
Vilardi
Larsson
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larsson
2
3
Vilardi
Larsson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Vilardi
Larsson
Edge
Even Strength
45.2% (564)
50.2% (504)
-5.0%
Power Play
53.3% (45)
33.3% (9)
+20.0%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (25)
41.7% (96)
+6.3%
On power play, Vilardi has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larsson shoots left. Vilardi is 44.8% vs left-shot opponents (482).
Vilardi shoots right. Larsson is 52.1% vs right-shot opponents (169).
Home / Away
Vilardi
Larsson
Home
47.3% (330)
48.2% (272)
Away
44.4% (304)
49.0% (337)
By Period
Vilardi
Larsson
P1
49.0%
48.6%
P2
43.2%
56.1%
P3
45.7%
41.0%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
48.9%
39.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Vilardi
40.0%▼
43.5%
45.9%
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2021 | 2 | 17:58 | Neutral | Gabriel Vilardi |
| May 5, 2021 | 2 | 00:46 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| May 5, 2021 | 1 | 17:44 | Neutral | Gabriel Vilardi |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 03:36 | Defensive | Gabriel Vilardi |
| May 3, 2021 | 2 | 00:53 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| May 3, 2021 | 1 | 07:28 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 2 | 06:45 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Apr 5, 2021 | 3 | 07:28 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 3, 2021 | 1 | 09:00 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 2 | 15:26 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 2 | 05:51 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 1 | 18:57 | Offensive | Gabriel Vilardi |