Scouting Report
Nolan Patrick holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Vilardi on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Vilardi wins 44.7% vs right-shot opponents — Patrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Vilardi 47.6% vs Patrick 48.9% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Vilardi 51.5%
Defensive zone
Vilardi 50.3%
Neutral zone
Vilardi 50.3%
Result
Gabriel Vilardi favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Vilardi
Patrick
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Vilardi
Patrick
Last 7: Vilardi 3-4 Patrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Vilardi
2
1
Vilardi
Patrick
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Patrick
0
1
Vilardi
Patrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Patrick
1
2
Vilardi
Patrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Vilardi
Patrick
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (101)
47.4% (156)
-0.9%
Power Play
43.3% (30)
56.3% (16)
-13.0%
On power play, Patrick has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Patrick shoots right. Vilardi is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (47).
Vilardi shoots right. Patrick is 58.3% vs right-shot opponents (60).
Home / Away
Vilardi
Patrick
Home
51.6% (64)
43.8% (96)
Away
40.3% (67)
53.9% (76)
By Period
Vilardi
Patrick
P1
48.9%
44.4%
P2
42.9%
45.6%
P3
45.2%
56.0%
Final 5 min
41.2%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Vilardi
40.0%▼
43.5%
45.8%
Patrick
36.0%▼
49.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2021 | 3 | 19:02 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 3 | 17:16 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 3 | 17:04 | Offensive | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 3 | 12:10 | Neutral | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 2 | 11:15 | Offensive | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 2 | 07:46 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 2 | 04:25 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |