Scouting Report
Gemel Smith holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Toninato on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Toninato wins 43.8% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toninato 44.5% vs Smith 47.9% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 59.5%
Defensive zone
Smith 53.5%
Neutral zone
Smith 58.3%
Result
Gemel Smith favored at 58.9%
41.1%
58.9%
Toninato
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Toninato
Smith
Last 9: Toninato 5-4 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smith
1
3
Toninato
Smith
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toninato
4
1
Toninato
Smith
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toninato
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
44.0% (182)
45.6% (90)
-1.6%
Power Play
25.0% (4)
100.0% (2)
-75.0%
Penalty Kill
15.4% (13)
0.0% (2)
+15.4%
On power play, Smith has a +75.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Toninato is 43.8% vs left-shot opponents (128).
Toninato shoots left. Smith is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (53).
Home / Away
Toninato
Smith
Home
47.3% (91)
46.2% (52)
Away
37.0% (108)
45.2% (42)
By Period
Toninato
Smith
P1
38.0%
33.3%
P2
37.3%
54.2%
P3
49.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
33.3%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toninato
46.0%▼
47.5%
41.7%
Smith
46.0%▬
47.0%
45.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2017 | 3 | 18:10 | Neutral | Dominic Toninato |
| Dec 3, 2017 | 2 | 01:08 | Neutral | Dominic Toninato |
| Dec 3, 2017 | 1 | 13:05 | Offensive | Dominic Toninato |
| Dec 3, 2017 | 1 | 07:55 | Offensive | Gemel Smith |
| Nov 22, 2017 | 3 | 02:28 | Neutral | Dominic Toninato |
| Nov 22, 2017 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dominic Toninato |
| Nov 22, 2017 | 2 | 15:50 | Neutral | Gemel Smith |
| Nov 22, 2017 | 2 | 02:06 | Offensive | Gemel Smith |
| Nov 22, 2017 | 2 | 02:01 | Offensive | Gemel Smith |