Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.7% vs 46.3%). Look for Ward on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 47.9% vs Ward 47.4% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 54.9%
Defensive zone
Ward 64.3%
Neutral zone
Ward 56.1%
Result
Joel Ward favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Smith
Ward
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Smith
Ward
Last 6: Smith 1-5 Ward
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ward
0
1
Smith
Ward
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ward
0
1
Smith
Ward
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ward
1
3
Smith
Ward
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Ward
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (90)
49.2% (181)
-3.6%
Power Play
100.0% (2)
50.0% (4)
+50.0%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (2)
34.8% (46)
-34.8%
On power play, Smith has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ward shoots right. Smith is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (41).
Smith shoots left. Ward is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (157).
Home / Away
Smith
Ward
Home
46.2% (52)
40.7% (86)
Away
45.2% (42)
49.7% (145)
By Period
Smith
Ward
P1
33.3%
55.7%
P2
54.2%
43.0%
P3
50.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
48.0%
43.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
46.0%▬
47.0%
45.7%
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2017 | 3 | 16:09 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Dec 31, 2017 | 3 | 11:05 | Neutral | Gemel Smith |
| Dec 31, 2017 | 2 | 07:04 | Neutral | Joel Ward |
| Dec 31, 2017 | 1 | 19:15 | Neutral | Joel Ward |
| Dec 31, 2017 | 1 | 13:55 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Dec 31, 2017 | 1 | 06:19 | Neutral | Joel Ward |