Scouting Report
Joel Ward holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Ward on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 47.7% vs Ward 48.4% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 62.5%
Defensive zone
Ward 59.0%
Neutral zone
Ward 52.0%
Result
Joel Ward favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
Smith
Ward
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Smith
Ward
Last 6: Smith 1-5 Ward
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ward
0
1
Smith
Ward
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ward
0
1
Smith
Ward
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ward
1
3
Smith
Ward
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Ward
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (212)
51.3% (1,186)
-2.7%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
53.4% (238)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
9.1% (11)
35.5% (366)
-26.4%
On penalty kill, Ward has a +26.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ward shoots right. Smith is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (72).
Smith shoots left. Ward is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,320).
Home / Away
Smith
Ward
Home
43.0% (114)
50.3% (870)
Away
50.4% (113)
46.5% (921)
By Period
Smith
Ward
P1
45.6%
47.6%
P2
49.4%
47.5%
P3
45.0%
50.3%
Final 5 min
40.4%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
46.0%▬
47.0%
46.7%
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2017 | 3 | 16:09 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Dec 31, 2017 | 3 | 11:05 | Neutral | Gemel Smith |
| Dec 31, 2017 | 2 | 07:04 | Neutral | Joel Ward |
| Dec 31, 2017 | 1 | 19:15 | Neutral | Joel Ward |
| Dec 31, 2017 | 1 | 13:55 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Dec 31, 2017 | 1 | 06:19 | Neutral | Joel Ward |