Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Smith wins 44.5% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 47.7% vs Toews 57.9% (-11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 75.2%
Defensive zone
Smith 75.4%
Neutral zone
Smith 78.0%
Result
Gemel Smith favored at 76.1%
76.1%
23.9%
Smith
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Smith
Toews
Last 7: Smith 2-5 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
2
Smith
Toews
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
2
Smith
Toews
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Smith
Toews
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (212)
57.2% (13,047)
-8.6%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
63.3% (3,252)
-13.3%
Penalty Kill
9.1% (11)
53.6% (1,810)
-44.5%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +44.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Smith is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (155).
Smith shoots left. Toews is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (11,653).
Home / Away
Smith
Toews
Home
43.0% (114)
59.7% (9,192)
Away
50.4% (113)
56.1% (8,948)
By Period
Smith
Toews
P1
45.6%
58.6%
P2
49.4%
57.8%
P3
45.0%
57.3%
Final 5 min
40.4%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
46.0%▬
47.0%
46.7%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
57.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2016 | 2 | 17:33 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 6, 2016 | 2 | 04:39 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 6, 2016 | 2 | 02:03 | Neutral | Gemel Smith |
| Nov 5, 2016 | 3 | 11:57 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 5, 2016 | 2 | 19:47 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 5, 2016 | 2 | 15:04 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 5, 2016 | 1 | 09:23 | Defensive | Gemel Smith |