Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +12.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Smith wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 47.2% vs Toews 54.6% (-12.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 66.4%
Defensive zone
Smith 57.4%
Neutral zone
Smith 66.3%
Result
Gemel Smith favored at 62.5%
62.5%
37.5%
Smith
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Smith
Toews
Last 7: Smith 2-5 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
2
Smith
Toews
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
2
Smith
Toews
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Smith
Toews
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (55)
54.8% (1,153)
-11.2%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
50.0% (166)
-25.0%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Smith is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (49).
Smith shoots left. Toews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (988).
Home / Away
Smith
Toews
Home
40.6% (32)
58.7% (784)
Away
44.4% (27)
51.0% (768)
By Period
Smith
Toews
P1
52.9%
54.0%
P2
37.5%
57.4%
P3
38.9%
52.6%
Final 5 min
33.3%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
46.0%▬
47.0%
42.4%
Toews
52.0%▼
58.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2016 | 2 | 17:33 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 6, 2016 | 2 | 04:39 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 6, 2016 | 2 | 02:03 | Neutral | Gemel Smith |
| Nov 5, 2016 | 3 | 11:57 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 5, 2016 | 2 | 19:47 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 5, 2016 | 2 | 15:04 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 5, 2016 | 1 | 09:23 | Defensive | Gemel Smith |