Scouting Report
Steven Lorentz holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Smith wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 47.9% vs Lorentz 50.9% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Smith leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Lorentz 66.1%
Defensive zone
Lorentz 62.2%
Neutral zone
Lorentz 55.1%
Result
Steven Lorentz favored at 61.0%
39.0%
61.0%
Smith
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Smith
Lorentz
Last 10: Smith 4-6 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smith
3
2
Smith
Lorentz
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
2
1
Smith
Lorentz
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lorentz
2
3
Smith
Lorentz
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (34)
51.7% (292)
-1.7%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
40.0% (10)
-40.0%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (5)
42.9% (7)
-42.9%
On penalty kill, Lorentz has a +42.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Smith is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (32).
Smith shoots left. Lorentz is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (203).
Home / Away
Smith
Lorentz
Home
33.3% (21)
52.3% (155)
Away
52.6% (19)
50.0% (154)
By Period
Smith
Lorentz
P1
50.0%
59.2%
P2
47.4%
50.9%
P3
30.8%
43.2%
Final 5 min
20.0%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
46.0%▬
47.0%
42.5%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2021 | 3 | 18:44 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 2 | 14:59 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 2 | 14:37 | Defensive | Gemel Smith |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 2 | 11:18 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 1 | 17:36 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 1 | 14:23 | Neutral | Gemel Smith |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 1 | 02:59 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 3 | 17:41 | Neutral | Gemel Smith |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 3 | 02:23 | Offensive | Gemel Smith |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 2 | 15:30 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 2 | 03:54 | Offensive | Gemel Smith |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 1 | 06:27 | Offensive | Gemel Smith |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 1 | 03:55 | Defensive | Gemel Smith |