Scouting Report
Lucas Wallmark holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for McKegg on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McKegg wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Wallmark shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McKegg 49.5% vs Wallmark 50.3% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wallmark 53.2%
Defensive zone
McKegg 50.3%
Neutral zone
Wallmark 53.0%
Result
Lucas Wallmark favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
McKegg
Wallmark
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
McKegg
Wallmark
Last 6: McKegg 3-3 Wallmark
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McKegg
2
1
McKegg
Wallmark
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Wallmark
1
2
McKegg
Wallmark
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McKegg
Wallmark
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (184)
50.2% (633)
-1.3%
Power Play
62.5% (8)
71.9% (32)
-9.4%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (19)
43.2% (88)
+4.2%
On power play, Wallmark has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wallmark shoots left. McKegg is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (143).
McKegg shoots left. Wallmark is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (455).
Home / Away
McKegg
Wallmark
Home
50.0% (112)
48.6% (368)
Away
48.5% (99)
51.9% (385)
By Period
McKegg
Wallmark
P1
42.4%
49.0%
P2
55.4%
55.0%
P3
49.3%
47.1%
Final 5 min
51.2%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McKegg
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.3%
Wallmark
44.0%▬
44.5%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2019 | 3 | 02:34 | Neutral | Lucas Wallmark |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 3 | 02:29 | Offensive | Lucas Wallmark |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 2 | 16:28 | Neutral | Greg McKegg |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 2 | 01:27 | Neutral | Lucas Wallmark |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 1 | 17:21 | Offensive | Greg McKegg |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 1 | 01:41 | Offensive | Greg McKegg |