Scouting Report
Lucas Wallmark holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for McKegg on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McKegg wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Wallmark shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McKegg 49.2% vs Wallmark 50.2% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wallmark 51.3%
Defensive zone
McKegg 50.2%
Neutral zone
McKegg 50.6%
Result
Lucas Wallmark favored at 50.4%
49.6%
50.4%
McKegg
Wallmark
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
McKegg
Wallmark
Last 6: McKegg 3-3 Wallmark
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McKegg
2
1
McKegg
Wallmark
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Wallmark
1
2
McKegg
Wallmark
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McKegg
Wallmark
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (1,143)
50.5% (1,852)
-1.4%
Power Play
50.0% (24)
56.3% (103)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
48.8% (86)
44.9% (216)
+3.9%
On power play, Wallmark has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wallmark shoots left. McKegg is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (782).
McKegg shoots left. Wallmark is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,391).
Home / Away
McKegg
Wallmark
Home
50.4% (554)
50.8% (1,070)
Away
48.1% (699)
49.6% (1,101)
By Period
McKegg
Wallmark
P1
48.7%
51.4%
P2
49.9%
50.8%
P3
48.6%
48.7%
Final 5 min
49.0%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McKegg
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.1%
Wallmark
44.0%▬
44.5%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2019 | 3 | 02:34 | Neutral | Lucas Wallmark |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 3 | 02:29 | Offensive | Lucas Wallmark |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 2 | 16:28 | Neutral | Greg McKegg |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 2 | 01:27 | Neutral | Lucas Wallmark |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 1 | 17:21 | Offensive | Greg McKegg |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 1 | 01:41 | Offensive | Greg McKegg |