Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). McKegg wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McKegg 49.2% vs Duchene 54.1% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
McKegg 52.7%
Defensive zone
McKegg 78.4%
Neutral zone
McKegg 65.3%
Result
Greg McKegg favored at 68.0%
68.0%
32.0%
McKegg
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
9
(15 meetings)
6
9
McKegg
Duchene
Last 10: McKegg 5-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
McKegg
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McKegg
4
2
McKegg
Duchene
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
5
McKegg
Duchene
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McKegg
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (1,143)
53.9% (10,396)
-4.8%
Power Play
50.0% (24)
56.9% (1,665)
-6.9%
Penalty Kill
48.8% (86)
49.1% (468)
-0.3%
On power play, Duchene has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. McKegg is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (782).
McKegg shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Home / Away
McKegg
Duchene
Home
50.4% (554)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
48.1% (699)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
McKegg
Duchene
P1
48.7%
54.5%
P2
49.9%
54.5%
P3
48.6%
53.4%
Final 5 min
49.0%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McKegg
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.1%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2021 | 3 | 18:46 | Defensive | Greg McKegg |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 1 | 02:51 | Defensive | Greg McKegg |
| Mar 15, 2019 | 2 | 05:26 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 15, 2019 | 1 | 15:15 | Defensive | Greg McKegg |
| Mar 15, 2019 | 1 | 12:53 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 12, 2019 | 3 | 18:46 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 12, 2019 | 2 | 10:22 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 18, 2019 | 2 | 14:28 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 3 | 11:28 | Offensive | Greg McKegg |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 2 | 19:27 | Defensive | Greg McKegg |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 2 | 19:20 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 1 | 01:12 | Neutral | Greg McKegg |
| Nov 16, 2017 | 2 | 05:01 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2017 | 1 | 13:50 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2017 | 1 | 07:45 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |