Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. McKegg wins 41.7% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McKegg 46.9% vs Duchene 52.8% (-9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 91.6%
Defensive zone
McKegg 52.4%
Neutral zone
Duchene 66.6%
Result
Greg McKegg favored at 52.4%
52.4%
47.6%
McKegg
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
McKegg
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McKegg
2
0
McKegg
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McKegg
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (146)
46.9% (162)
-1.0%
Penalty Kill
35.7% (14)
100.0% (2)
-64.3%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +64.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. McKegg is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (103).
McKegg shoots left. Duchene is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (115).
Home / Away
McKegg
Duchene
Home
45.3% (64)
58.4% (125)
Away
44.8% (96)
48.4% (95)
By Period
McKegg
Duchene
P1
48.1%
56.9%
P2
50.0%
52.5%
P3
37.9%
51.9%
Final 5 min
40.5%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McKegg
40.0%▼
48.0%
45.0%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2021 | 3 | 18:46 | Defensive | Greg McKegg |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 1 | 02:51 | Defensive | Greg McKegg |