Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.1% vs 49.0%). Look for Backlund on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McKegg wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McKegg 49.2% vs Backlund 49.0% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McKegg 58.5%
Defensive zone
McKegg 53.2%
Neutral zone
McKegg 56.3%
Result
Greg McKegg favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
McKegg
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
McKegg
Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
1
McKegg
Backlund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
2
McKegg
Backlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McKegg
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (1,143)
49.7% (13,410)
-0.6%
Power Play
50.0% (24)
51.6% (1,336)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
48.8% (86)
44.0% (2,446)
+4.8%
On penalty kill, McKegg has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. McKegg is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (782).
McKegg shoots left. Backlund is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (10,953).
Home / Away
McKegg
Backlund
Home
50.4% (554)
49.7% (8,565)
Away
48.1% (699)
48.3% (8,632)
By Period
McKegg
Backlund
P1
48.7%
48.5%
P2
49.9%
50.3%
P3
48.6%
48.4%
Final 5 min
49.0%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McKegg
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.1%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2019 | 3 | 14:45 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 22, 2019 | 1 | 14:56 | Neutral | Greg McKegg |
| Jan 22, 2019 | 1 | 10:49 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 2 | 13:06 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |