Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McKegg wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McKegg 49.2% vs Paul 52.2% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McKegg 68.1%
Defensive zone
McKegg 68.8%
Neutral zone
McKegg 66.6%
Result
Greg McKegg favored at 67.5%
67.5%
32.5%
McKegg
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
McKegg
Paul
Last 8: McKegg 2-6 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
3
McKegg
Paul
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McKegg
1
0
McKegg
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
3
McKegg
Paul
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McKegg
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (1,143)
52.5% (3,796)
-3.4%
Power Play
50.0% (24)
56.5% (480)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
48.8% (86)
46.7% (574)
+2.1%
On power play, Paul has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. McKegg is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (782).
McKegg shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Home / Away
McKegg
Paul
Home
50.4% (554)
52.7% (2,412)
Away
48.1% (699)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
McKegg
Paul
P1
48.7%
53.9%
P2
49.9%
51.0%
P3
48.6%
52.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McKegg
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.1%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2016 | 3 | 10:36 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 7, 2016 | 2 | 18:06 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 7, 2016 | 2 | 17:51 | Neutral | Greg McKegg |
| Apr 7, 2016 | 2 | 14:15 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 7, 2016 | 2 | 14:05 | Defensive | Greg McKegg |
| Apr 7, 2016 | 2 | 10:35 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 7, 2016 | 2 | 05:52 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 7, 2016 | 2 | 03:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |