Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +14.8% FO% edge overall. Lapierre wins 35.1% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lapierre 42.7% vs Sturm 53.6% (-14.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lapierre 83.5%
Defensive zone
Lapierre 54.4%
Neutral zone
Lapierre 72.9%
Result
Hendrix Lapierre favored at 54.4%
54.4%
45.6%
Lapierre
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Lapierre
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
Lapierre
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lapierre
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
39.9% (248)
54.6% (271)
-14.7%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
54.4% (90)
-54.4%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +54.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Lapierre is 35.1% vs left-shot opponents (174).
Lapierre shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Lapierre
Sturm
Home
44.2% (138)
53.0% (168)
Away
34.5% (116)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Lapierre
Sturm
P1
54.2%
58.2%
P2
39.1%
53.2%
P3
25.3%
52.3%
Final 5 min
37.5%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lapierre
40.0%▬
39.5%
39.8%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 14:34 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 16:38 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |