Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Lapierre wins 35.1% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lapierre 42.7% vs Cates 45.5% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 54.9%
Defensive zone
Lapierre 57.1%
Neutral zone
Cates 55.4%
Result
Hendrix Lapierre favored at 57.1%
57.1%
42.9%
Lapierre
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Lapierre
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lapierre
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lapierre
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
39.9% (248)
45.4% (712)
-5.5%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
42.2% (102)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
44.7% (47)
-44.7%
On penalty kill, Cates has a +44.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Lapierre is 35.1% vs left-shot opponents (174).
Lapierre shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Home / Away
Lapierre
Cates
Home
44.2% (138)
46.3% (423)
Away
34.5% (116)
43.6% (438)
By Period
Lapierre
Cates
P1
54.2%
46.3%
P2
39.1%
47.1%
P3
25.3%
42.1%
Final 5 min
37.5%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lapierre
40.0%▬
39.5%
39.8%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | 3 | 04:55 | Defensive | Hendrix Lapierre |
| Mar 11, 2026 | 1 | 02:29 | Defensive | Noah Cates |