Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +14.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lapierre 42.7% vs Carrick 53.8% (-14.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lapierre 86.2%
Defensive zone
Lapierre 66.8%
Neutral zone
Lapierre 78.0%
Result
Hendrix Lapierre favored at 79.6%
79.6%
20.4%
Lapierre
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Lapierre
Carrick
Last 5: Lapierre 1-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lapierre
1
0
Lapierre
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
4
Lapierre
Carrick
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lapierre
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
39.9% (248)
55.1% (439)
-15.2%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
66.7% (3)
-26.7%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
49.1% (53)
-49.1%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +49.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Lapierre is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (80).
Lapierre shoots left. Carrick is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (355).
Home / Away
Lapierre
Carrick
Home
44.2% (138)
58.2% (225)
Away
34.5% (116)
51.5% (270)
By Period
Lapierre
Carrick
P1
54.2%
56.7%
P2
39.1%
52.8%
P3
25.3%
54.4%
Final 5 min
37.5%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lapierre
40.0%▬
39.5%
39.8%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 19:11 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 16:37 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 19:31 | Offensive | Hendrix Lapierre |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 08:10 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 14:07 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |