Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +12.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Barbashev wins 40.9% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barbashev 42.2% vs Spezza 54.7% (-12.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barbashev 68.7%
Defensive zone
Barbashev 70.4%
Neutral zone
Barbashev 68.3%
Result
Ivan Barbashev favored at 69.5%
69.5%
30.5%
Barbashev
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Barbashev
Spezza
Last 8: Barbashev 3-5 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
2
Barbashev
Spezza
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Barbashev
Spezza
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
1
Barbashev
Spezza
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barbashev
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
42.0% (1,738)
54.4% (7,990)
-12.4%
Power Play
46.1% (89)
56.8% (1,726)
-10.7%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (139)
52.7% (643)
-16.0%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Barbashev is 40.9% vs right-shot opponents (793).
Barbashev shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Home / Away
Barbashev
Spezza
Home
42.4% (932)
56.8% (5,066)
Away
41.3% (1,034)
52.7% (5,332)
By Period
Barbashev
Spezza
P1
40.7%
55.7%
P2
42.3%
54.4%
P3
42.3%
54.1%
OT
60.0%
51.5%
Final 5 min
39.2%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barbashev
22.0%▼
35.0%
41.8%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2019 | 3 | 19:19 | Offensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 3 | 18:56 | Defensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Oct 7, 2019 | 2 | 08:17 | Defensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 1 | 09:07 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 3 | 19:58 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 3 | 13:29 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 1 | 10:25 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 1 | 07:33 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |