Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +12.6% FO% edge overall. Barbashev wins 41.9% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barbashev 46.4% vs Spezza 57.3% (-12.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barbashev 84.7%
Defensive zone
Barbashev 90.0%
Neutral zone
Barbashev 85.7%
Result
Ivan Barbashev favored at 87.0%
87.0%
13.0%
Barbashev
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Barbashev
Spezza
Last 5: Barbashev 0-5 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
2
Barbashev
Spezza
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
2
Barbashev
Spezza
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
1
Barbashev
Spezza
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barbashev
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (389)
58.0% (697)
-11.5%
Power Play
16.7% (6)
60.0% (105)
-43.3%
Penalty Kill
41.3% (46)
60.0% (5)
-18.7%
On power play, Spezza has a +43.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Barbashev is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (191).
Barbashev shoots left. Spezza is 58.2% vs left-shot opponents (591).
Home / Away
Barbashev
Spezza
Home
45.9% (233)
58.2% (376)
Away
45.2% (208)
58.2% (431)
By Period
Barbashev
Spezza
P1
46.5%
63.3%
P2
48.3%
54.9%
P3
42.1%
57.4%
Final 5 min
42.4%
57.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barbashev
22.0%▼
35.0%
45.6%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
58.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2019 | 1 | 09:07 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 3 | 19:58 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 3 | 13:29 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 1 | 10:25 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 1 | 07:33 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |