Scouting Report
Luke Johnson holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Barbashev wins 39.7% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barbashev 45.7% vs Johnson 50.3% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barbashev 71.9%
Defensive zone
Barbashev 67.8%
Neutral zone
Barbashev 73.0%
Result
Ivan Barbashev favored at 69.6%
69.6%
30.4%
Barbashev
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Barbashev
Johnson
Last 5: Barbashev 1-4 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
1
Barbashev
Johnson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
1
2
Barbashev
Johnson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
1
Barbashev
Johnson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barbashev
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (154)
51.8% (85)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
0.0% (1)
+28.6%
On penalty kill, Barbashev has a +28.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Barbashev is 39.7% vs right-shot opponents (68).
Barbashev shoots left. Johnson is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (73).
Home / Away
Barbashev
Johnson
Home
40.6% (101)
36.4% (22)
Away
46.6% (88)
55.4% (65)
By Period
Barbashev
Johnson
P1
43.3%
65.4%
P2
41.1%
47.8%
P3
45.5%
42.1%
Final 5 min
34.8%
37.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barbashev
22.0%▼
35.0%
43.4%
Johnson
42.0%▼
49.5%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2021 | 3 | 19:36 | Defensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 3 | 02:22 | Defensive | Luke Johnson |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 3 | 02:14 | Defensive | Luke Johnson |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 1 | 06:59 | Neutral | Luke Johnson |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 1 | 02:33 | Offensive | Luke Johnson |