Scouting Report
Ivan Barbashev holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kempe on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Barbashev wins 42.5% vs left-shot opponents — Kempe shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barbashev 42.2% vs Kempe 40.7% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barbashev 59.1%
Defensive zone
Kempe 52.0%
Neutral zone
Kempe 56.5%
Result
Mario Kempe favored at 52.6%
47.4%
52.6%
Barbashev
Kempe
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Barbashev
Kempe
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barbashev
1
0
Barbashev
Kempe
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kempe
1
2
Barbashev
Kempe
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barbashev
Kempe
Edge
Even Strength
42.0% (1,738)
38.7% (380)
+3.3%
Power Play
46.1% (89)
33.3% (3)
+12.8%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (139)
31.3% (16)
+5.4%
On power play, Barbashev has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kempe shoots left. Barbashev is 42.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,173).
Barbashev shoots left. Kempe is 37.1% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Barbashev
Kempe
Home
42.4% (932)
40.1% (177)
Away
41.3% (1,034)
36.9% (222)
By Period
Barbashev
Kempe
P1
40.7%
34.7%
P2
42.3%
40.4%
P3
42.3%
38.8%
OT
60.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
39.2%
39.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barbashev
22.0%▼
35.0%
41.8%
Kempe
50.0%▲
38.5%
38.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2019 | 3 | 19:38 | Neutral | Ivan Barbashev |
| Mar 12, 2019 | 3 | 01:42 | Neutral | Mario Kempe |
| Mar 12, 2019 | 2 | 07:24 | Neutral | Mario Kempe |
| Mar 12, 2019 | 2 | 02:34 | Offensive | Ivan Barbashev |