Scouting Report
Nick Bonino holds a +11.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Barbashev on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Barbashev wins 38.6% vs left-shot opponents — Bonino shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barbashev 42.3% vs Bonino 51.2% (-11.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bonino 67.5%
Defensive zone
Bonino 91.0%
Neutral zone
Bonino 86.1%
Result
Nick Bonino favored at 85.5%
14.5%
85.5%
Barbashev
Bonino
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Barbashev
Bonino
Last 7: Barbashev 5-2 Bonino
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barbashev
1
0
Barbashev
Bonino
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barbashev
2
1
Barbashev
Bonino
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barbashev
2
1
Barbashev
Bonino
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barbashev
Bonino
Edge
Even Strength
37.9% (272)
51.7% (777)
-13.8%
Power Play
58.6% (29)
60.0% (50)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
40.7% (27)
43.9% (98)
-3.2%
On even strength, Bonino has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bonino shoots left. Barbashev is 38.6% vs left-shot opponents (202).
Barbashev shoots left. Bonino is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (629).
Home / Away
Barbashev
Bonino
Home
45.3% (137)
48.2% (461)
Away
36.1% (191)
54.5% (464)
By Period
Barbashev
Bonino
P1
41.8%
54.1%
P2
43.1%
49.7%
P3
31.9%
50.7%
OT
75.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
37.1%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barbashev
22.0%▼
35.0%
39.9%
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2021 | 2 | 16:06 | Offensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 2 | 06:39 | Defensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 1 | 12:26 | Defensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 1 | 00:03 | Neutral | Ivan Barbashev |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ivan Barbashev |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 3 | 01:47 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 2 | 08:36 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |