Scouting Report
Leon Draisaitl holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Draisaitl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Finley wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Draisaitl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Finley 48.8% vs Draisaitl 56.4% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Draisaitl 81.9%
Defensive zone
Finley 78.9%
Neutral zone
Finley 51.8%
Result
Leon Draisaitl favored at 57.6%
42.4%
57.6%
Finley
Draisaitl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Finley
Draisaitl
Last 5: Finley 2-3 Draisaitl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
0
3
Finley
Draisaitl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Finley
2
0
Finley
Draisaitl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Finley
Draisaitl
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (239)
55.9% (835)
-8.6%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
61.8% (228)
-11.8%
Penalty Kill
57.7% (26)
50.0% (40)
+7.7%
On power play, Draisaitl has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Draisaitl shoots left. Finley is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (198).
Finley shoots right. Draisaitl is 57.7% vs right-shot opponents (395).
Home / Away
Finley
Draisaitl
Home
50.0% (162)
55.1% (508)
Away
46.2% (117)
58.5% (595)
By Period
Finley
Draisaitl
P1
53.2%
55.8%
P2
44.6%
55.7%
P3
49.0%
59.0%
OT
0.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Finley
54.0%▲
50.5%
48.4%
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2026 | 2 | 18:46 | Defensive | Jack Finley |
| Mar 13, 2026 | 2 | 08:15 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 13, 2026 | 2 | 08:08 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 13, 2026 | 1 | 07:15 | Defensive | Jack Finley |
| Mar 13, 2026 | 1 | 04:16 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |