Scouting Report
Leon Draisaitl holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Draisaitl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Finley wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Draisaitl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Finley 49.0% vs Draisaitl 53.3% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Draisaitl 68.3%
Defensive zone
Finley 79.3%
Neutral zone
Finley 58.5%
Result
Jack Finley favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Finley
Draisaitl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Finley
Draisaitl
Last 5: Finley 2-3 Draisaitl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
0
3
Finley
Draisaitl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Finley
2
0
Finley
Draisaitl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Finley
Draisaitl
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (244)
52.9% (10,240)
-5.4%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
55.7% (2,827)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
57.7% (26)
51.2% (977)
+6.5%
On penalty kill, Finley has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Draisaitl shoots left. Finley is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (202).
Finley shoots right. Draisaitl is 56.4% vs right-shot opponents (5,098).
Home / Away
Finley
Draisaitl
Home
50.0% (162)
54.6% (7,049)
Away
46.7% (122)
52.0% (6,995)
By Period
Finley
Draisaitl
P1
53.2%
52.7%
P2
44.6%
53.6%
P3
49.5%
53.4%
OT
0.0%
57.0%
Final 5 min
49.4%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Finley
54.0%▲
50.5%
48.6%
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
53.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2026 | 2 | 18:46 | Defensive | Jack Finley |
| Mar 13, 2026 | 2 | 08:15 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 13, 2026 | 2 | 08:08 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 13, 2026 | 1 | 07:15 | Defensive | Jack Finley |
| Mar 13, 2026 | 1 | 04:16 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |